HOUSE BILL REPORT

SHB 1685

BYHouse Committee on Ways & Means (originally sponsored by Representatives Grimm, Holland, Locke, Silver, H. Sommers, Pruitt, Brough, May and Ferguson)

Providing for state caseload forecasts.

House Committe on Ways & Means

Majority Report:  The substitute bill be substituted therefor and the substitute bill do pass.  (27)

      Signed by Representatives Grimm, Chair; Bristow, Vice Chair; Basich, Belcher, Braddock, Brekke, Brough, Butterfield, Dellwo, Ebersole, Fuhrman, Grant, Hine, Holland, Locke, McLean, Nealey, Peery, Rust, Schoon, Silver, H. Sommers, Spanel, Sprenkle, Valle, Wang and B. Williams.

House Staff:      Jack Daray (786-7136)

AS PASSED HOUSE FEBRUARY 15, 1988

BACKGROUND:

To assist with the managing of public programs and for establishing program funding levels, most state agencies produce forecasts of caseloads to be served. These forecasts generally cover two year periods of time.  Different models and forecasting techniques are used to predict the level of service anticipated in the particular program.  Program administrators, usually in conjunction with central budget office staff, work together to determine the assumptions used to generate the anticipated levels of service in each program.  The Office of Financial Management (OFM) then reviews these forecasts prior to their release to the legislature.

The forecasted caseloads are usually available in November just prior to the release of the Governor's Biennial Budget on December 20 of each even numbered year.  The caseload forecasts are generally updated once and sometimes twice before a final legislative budget is adopted.  The timing of the forecast updates frequently do not correspond well with legislative analysis and decision making.

There have been instances since fiscal year 1980 of actual caseloads far exceeding estimated caseloads.  This has been especially troublesome in the case of the Department of Social and Health Services programs, specifically Income Assistance, Medical Assistance, and Nursing Homes.  The underestimating of caseloads has resulted in the need for supplemental appropriations and/or the imposition of reduced grant payments and/or services to clients and families to allow the affected programs to continue operating without exceeding available funding.

SUMMARY:

The Office of Financial Management, with the assistance of state agencies affected by caseload forecasting, is responsible for preparation of caseload forecast levels by month or appropriate time period and prior to every regular session of the legislature.

The Caseload Forecast Work Group is created to meet at least quarterly with the Office of Financial Management to: (1) review documentation concerning the methods, assumptions and any policy or program changes associated with caseload forecast and (2) identify the caseload levels by month or appropriate time period. The Work Group is composed of: (1) the chairs and ranking minority members of the ways and means committees of the house and senate and (2) the executive heads of the Office of Financial Management, the Department of Social and Health Services, the Department of Corrections, the Higher Education Coordinating Board, the State Board for Community Colleges and the Superintendent of Public Education, or their designees.

Caseload as defined includes virtually all human services caseloads as well as kindergarten through twelfth grade and higher education.

EFFECT OF SENATE AMENDMENT(S):  Senate amendments require adoption of an official quarterly caseload forecast by the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, including consideration of forecasts reflecting pessimistic and optimistic assumptions.  A Caseload Forecast Supervisor is established within the Office of Financial Management with the expectation that technical aspects of caseload forecasting will be developed much the same as is done currently by the Economic and Revenue Forecast Supervisor employed by the Department of Revenue.

No Caseload Forecast Work Group is established as in the House adopted version; no review of written documentation on forecast assumptions and meeting of the agencies and forecasters when significant deviations from forecasts occur is required as in the House adopted version.

Raw caseload data is to be provided to the Caseload Forecast Supervisor when necessary and caseload is defined to include all significant human service agency caseloads, but not education caseloads as in the House adopted version.

Fiscal Note:      Requested February 2, 1988.

House Committee ‑ Testified For:    None Presented.

House Committee - Testified Against:      Gary Robinson, OFM.

House Committee - Testimony For:    None Presented.

House Committee - Testimony Against:      Gary Robinson, OFM, testified against HB 1685 citing the same reservations used in the Governor's veto of an identical version of HB 1685 passed in the 1987 legislative session (HB 1239):  (1) Caseload forecasting is an integral part of the budget development process for which OFM is responsible; (2) Connecting the official forecast timing to that of the revenue forecasts would create an artificial time frame for preparation of forecasts; forecasts need to be timed more to the cycles of the budget development and monitoring process.

VOTE ON FINAL PASSAGE:

      Yeas 97; Excused 1

Excused:    Representative Smith C