HOUSE BILL REPORT

SB 5354

BYSenators McDonald, Bluechel, Rasmussen, McMullen and Anderson

Providing for caseload forecasting in the office of financial management.

House Committe on Appropriations

Majority Report:  Do pass.  (24)

      Signed by Representatives Locke, Chair; Grant, Vice Chair; H. Sommers, Vice Chair; Silver, Ranking Republican Member; Youngsman, Assistant Ranking Republican Member; Belcher, Bowman, Brekke, Brough, Dorn, Ebersole, Ferguson, Hine, Inslee, May, McLean, Nealey, Rust, Sayan, Spanel, Sprenkle, Valle, Wang and Wineberry.

House Staff:Jack Daray (786-7178)

AS REPORTED BY COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS FEBRUARY 24, 1990

BACKGROUND:

The Office of Financial Management (OFM), in conjunction with the Department of Social and Health Services, the Department of Corrections and the Governor's Criminal Justice Work Group, produce caseload forecasts for use in budget and policy discussions.  These forecasts are for varying lengths of time depending on caseload characteristics, quality of forecasting methodologies, changes in actual caseload history or the need to modify or introduce variables to the predictive models.

Beginning in 1988, in response to criticisms concerning forecast accuracy and involvement of parties impacted by forecasts, the OFM directed executive agencies to work through the staff of the OFM Forecasting Division to assemble a catalog of forecasting methodologies and forecasted trends in those programs amenable to acceptable forecasting methodologies.  These materials and appropriate updates are the subject of quarterly meetings called by OFM which include invitations to appropriate agency, OFM and legislative staff and, occasionally, the chairs of the fiscal committees of the legislature.  Several of the caseload forecasts include variables keyed to the economic and revenue council forecast.  Therefore, regular caseload forecast updates and meetings must be arranged to occur at the time scheduled in statute for the revenue forecast.  The timing of these updates does not correspond well with the needs of legislative analysis and decision making.  Additional meetings are called when exceptional circumstances occur involving issues of methodology or data trends.

Recent sudden changes in actual trends as compared to predicted trends in prison population and Family Independence Program caseloads continue the perennial concern over the predictive power of currently available forecasting methodologies and processes.

SUMMARY:

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council becomes the Economic, Revenue and Caseload Forecast Council.  The council is required to approve all state caseload forecasts four times each year.  Caseload is defined as the number of persons expected to meet eligibility requirements or require services from Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Community Mental Health, the Involuntary Treatment Act, Medicaid, Nursing Homes, state correctional institutions, state mental hospitals, developmental disabled, juvenile offenders, and any other state-funded programs as determined by the council.

The director of the Office of Financial Management employs the caseload forecast supervisor.  Desirable experience and training are described.  Requirements that agencies affected by caseloads provide the council with caseload reports and data are included.  Caseload forecasts may be adjusted by assumptions about policy or program changes.  Such adjustments must be clearly spelled out in the budget document.

Fiscal Note:      Available.

House Committee ‑ Testified For:    No one.

House Committee - Testified Against:      Gary Robinson, Assistant Director, Office of Financial Management.

House Committee - Testimony For:    None.

House Committee - Testimony Against:      The process was modified in recent years to include all participants affected by caseload forecasts; proposed "rotating membership" on the Economic and Revenue Council would be an awkward forum for dealing definitively with forecasting issues.