SENATE BILL REPORT

                   SB 5472

              As Reported By Senate Committee On:

                Ways & Means, February 13, 1997

Title:  An act relating to state caseload forecasts.

Brief Description:  Creating the caseload forecast council.

Sponsors:  Senators West, Spanel, McDonald, Kohl, Long, Sheldon, Strannigan, Oke and Winsley.

Brief History:

Committee Activity:  Ways & Means:  2/12/97, 2/13/97 [DPS].

SENATE COMMITTEE ON WAYS & MEANS

Majority Report:  That Substitute Senate Bill No. 5472 be substituted therefor, and the substitute bill do pass.

  Signed by Senators West, Chair; Deccio, Vice Chair; Strannigan, Vice Chair; Bauer, Brown, Kohl, Long, Loveland, McDonald, Rossi, Schow, Sheldon, Snyder, Spanel, Swecker, Thibaudeau and Winsley.

Staff:  David Schumacher (786-7474)

Background:  The Office of Financial Management (OFM), along with the Department of Social and Health Services (DSHS) and other state agencies, prepares caseload forecasts for state social programs, corrections, medical assistance, long-term care, income assistance and K-12.

In addition, OFM annually prepares population estimates for local governments for the allocation of revenues.  They prepare annual certifications of all annexations and new incorporations in Washington to the federal Bureau of the Census and act as the official liaison to the federal Census Bureau.

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council consists of representatives of each of the four legislative caucuses and two representatives of the Governor.  The council employs a forecast supervisor and staff who prepares an economic and revenue forecast four times a year.

Summary of Substitute Bill:  A new Caseload Forecast Council is created, comprised of representatives of each of the four legislative caucuses and two representatives of the Governor. 

The council employs a supervisor and staff to perform forecasts of state entitlement programs, correctional institutions, institutions for juvenile offenders, K-12, long-term care, medical assistance, foster care and adoption support.  The Caseload Forecast Council does not forecast state population and is not involved in population estimates.

These forecasts are at least three times per year and coincide with the development of the Governor=s budget proposal and the legislative budget.

A workgroup consisting of staff from OFM, legislative committees, and state agencies is formed to facilitate a free flow of information concerning the forecast.  The workgroup is involved in the assumption setting process and has access to the models used for the forecasts.

Substitute Bill Compared to Original Bill:  The substitute bill specifies that the forecasts will occur at least three times per year.

Appropriation:  None.

  Fiscal Note:  Requested January 29, 1997.

Effective Date:  The bill contains an emergency clause and takes effect on July 1, 1997.

Testimony For:  There is a need for shared legislative and executive input into the forecast process.

Testimony Against:  None.

Testified:  Gary Robinson, OFM (pro).