SENATE BILL REPORT

SHB 1685

BYHouse Committee on Ways & Means (originally sponsored by Representatives Grimm, Holland, Locke, Silver, H. Sommers, Pruitt, Brough, May and Ferguson)

Providing for state caseload forecasts.

House Committe on Ways & Means

Senate Committee on Ways & Means

Senate Hearing Date(s):February 25, 1988; February 26, 1988

Majority Report:  Do pass as amended.

      Signed by Senators McDonald, Chairman; Craswell, Vice Chairman; Bluechel, Cantu, Deccio, Fleming, Hayner, Johnson, Lee, Newhouse, Saling, Smith, Vognild, Zimmerman.

Senate Staff:William Bafus (786-7715)

                  February 28, 1988

AS REPORTED BY COMMITTEE ON WAYS & MEANS, FEBRUARY 26, 1988

BACKGROUND:

To assist with the managing of public programs and for establishing program funding levels, most state agencies produce forecasts of caseloads to be served. These forecasts generally cover two year periods of time.  Different models and forecasting techniques are used to predict the level of service anticipated in the particular program.  Program administrators, usually in conjunction with central budget office staff, work together to determine the assumptions used to generate the anticipated levels of service in each program.  The Office of Financial Management (OFM) then reviews these forecasts prior to their release to the legislature.

The forecasted caseloads are usually available in November just prior to the release of the Governor's Biennial Budget on December 20 of each even numbered year.  The caseload forecasts are generally updated once and sometimes twice before a final legislative budget is adopted.  The timing of the forecast updates frequently do not correspond well with legislative analysis and decision making.

There have been instances since fiscal year 1980 of actual caseloads far exceeding estimated caseloads.  This has been especially troublesome in the case of the Department of Social and Health Services programs, specifically Income Assistance, Medical Assistance, and Nursing Homes.  The underestimating of caseloads has resulted in the need for supplemental appropriations and/or the imposition of reduced grant payments and/or services to clients and families to allow the affected programs to continue operating without exceeding available funding.

SUMMARY:

The Office of Financial Management, with the assistance of state agencies affected by caseload forecasting, is responsible for preparation of caseload forecast levels by month, appropriate time period and prior to every regular session of the Legislature.  Caseload forecasts are to be prepared for the following programs:  aid to families with dependent children; community mental health and involuntary treatment; Medicaid; nursing homes; state correctional institutions; state institutions for the mentally ill, developmentally disabled, and juvenile offenders; kindergarten through twelfth grade and higher education; and other state-funded programs as determined by the Office of Financial Management.

The Caseload Forecast Work Group is created to meet at least quarterly with the Office of Financial Management to:  (1) review documentation concerning the methods, assumptions and any policy or program changes associated with caseload forecasts and (2) identify the caseload levels by month or appropriate time period.  The Work Group is composed of:  (1) the chairs and ranking minority members of the Ways and Means Committees of the House and Senate and (2) the executive heads of the Office of Financial Management, the Department of Social and Health Services, the Department of Corrections, the Higher Education Coordinating Board, the State Board for Community Colleges and the Superintendent of Public Education, or their designees.

SUMMARY OF PROPOSED SENATE AMENDMENT:

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council is required to approve all state caseload forecasts. Caseload is defined as the number of persons expected to meet eligibility requirements or require services from Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Community Mental Health, the Involuntary Treatment Act, Medicaid, Nursing Homes, state correctional institutions, state mental hospitals, developmental disabled, juvenile offenders, and any other state- funded programs as determined by the Council.

The director of the Office of Financial Management employs the caseload forecast supervisor.  Desirable experience and training are described.  Requirements that agencies affected by caseloads provide the council with caseload reports and data are strengthened.  Caseload forecasts upon which the Governor's budget document are based may be adjusted by assumptions about policy or program changes.  Such adjustments must be clearly spelled out in the budget document.

Appropriation:    none

Revenue:    none

Fiscal Note:      available

Senate Committee - Testified: Gary Robinson, Office of Financial Management