SENATE BILL REPORT

SB 6601

BYSenators McDonald, Talmadge, Kiskaddon, Stratton and Deccio

Providing for caseload forecasts.

Senate Committee on Ways & Means

Senate Hearing Date(s):January 28, 1988

Majority Report:  That Substitute Senate Bill No. 6601 be substituted therefor, and the substitute bill do pass.

      Signed by Senators McDonald, Chairman; Craswell, Vice Chairman; Bluechel, Cantu, Deccio, Hayner, Johnson, Lee, Moore, Newhouse, Saling, Smith, Talmadge.

Senate Staff:William Bafus (786-7437)

                  January 28, 1988

AS REPORTED BY COMMITTEE ON WAYS & MEANS, JANUARY 28, 1988

BACKGROUND:

To assist with the managing of social programs and for establishing program funding levels, the Department of Social and Health Services (DSHS) produces forecasts of caseloads to be served.  These forecasts generally cover two-year periods of time.  Different models and forecasting techniques are used to predict the numbers of people seeking services.  Program administrators, in conjunction with central DSHS budget office staff, work together to determine the assumptions used to generate the anticipated numbers of people to be served in each program.  The Office of Financial Management (OFM), Forecasting Division, then reviews these forecasts prior to their release to the Legislature.

The caseload forecasts are available usually in November just prior to the release of the Governor's biennial budget on December 20 of each even-numbered year.  The caseload forecasts are generally updated once and sometimes twice before a final legislative budget is adopted.  The timing of the forecast updates do not correspond well with legislative analysis and decision making.

There have been many instances since fiscal year 1980 of actual caseloads far exceeding estimated caseloads.  This has been especially troublesome in certain programs, including Income Assistance, Medical Assistance, and Nursing Homes.  The underestimating of caseloads has resulted in the need for supplemental appropriations and/or the imposition of reduced grant payments and/or services to clients and families to allow the affected programs to continue operating without exceeding available funding.

SUMMARY:

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council is required to approve all state caseload forecasts.  The Secretary of the Department of Social and Health Services is to employ a caseload forecast supervisor.  After an initial three-year term, the supervisor's continued employment is subject to Forecast Council approval.  The caseload forecast supervisor is to prepare on a quarterly basis, subject to the approval of the Council:  (1) An official state caseload forecast, (2) an unofficial state caseload forecast based on optimistic caseload projections, and (3) an unofficial state caseload forecast based on pessimistic caseload projections.  Caseload is defined as the number of persons expected to meet eligibility requirements or require services from Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Community Mental Health, the Involuntary Treatment Act, Medicaid, Nursing Homes, state correctional institutions, state mental hospitals, developmental disabled, juvenile offenders, and any other state- funded programs as determined by the Council.

EFFECT OF PROPOSED SUBSTITUTE:

The original bill was not considered.  The director of the Office of Financial Management, rather than the secretary of the Department of Social and Health Services, employs the caseload forecast supervisor.  Desirable experience and training are described.  Requirements that agencies affected by caseloads provide the council with caseload reports and data are strengthened.  Caseload forecasts upon which the Governor's budget document are based may be adjusted by assumptions about policy or program changes.  Such adjustments must be clearly spelled out in the budget document.

Appropriation:    none

Revenue:    none

Fiscal Note:      requested

Senate Committee - Testified: Gary Robinson, Office of Financial Management