SENATE BILL REPORT

SB 5354

BYSenators McDonald, Bluechel, Rasmussen, McMullen and Anderson

Providing for caseload forecasting in the office of financial management.

Senate Committee on Ways & Means

Senate Hearing Date(s):February 16, 1989; February 21, 1989

Majority Report:  Do pass.

      Signed by Senators McDonald, Chairman; Craswell, Vice Chairman; Amondson, Bailey, Bauer, Bluechel, Cantu, Gaspard, Hayner, Matson, Newhouse, Niemi, Owen, Smith, Talmadge, Warnke, Wojahn.

Senate Staff:Bill Freund (786-7441)

                  January 18, 1990

AS PASSED SENATE, JANUARY 17, 1990

BACKGROUND:

The Department of Social and Health Services, in conjunction with and at the direction of the Office of Financial Management, produces forecasts of caseloads to be served in order to aid in the management of social programs and the establishment of program funding levels.  These forecasts generally cover two-year periods of time.  Program administrators, DSHS budget office staff, and Office of Financial Management Forecasting Division staff work together to determine the assumptions used to generate the anticipated numbers of people to be served and to produce the forecasts.

The caseload forecasts are usually available in November just prior to the release of the Governor's biennial budget on December 20 of each even-numbered year.  These forecasts are generally updated once and sometimes twice before a final legislative budget is adopted.  The timing of these updates does not correspond well with legislative analysis and decision making.

There have been many instances since fiscal year 1980 of actual caseloads far exceeding estimated caseloads.  This has been especially troublesome in certain programs, including Income Assistance, Medical Assistance, and Nursing Homes.  This has resulted in the need for supplemental appropriations and/or the imposition of reduced grant payments and/or services to clients and families to allow the affected programs to continue operating without exceeding available funding.

SUMMARY:

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council becomes the Economic, Revenue and Caseload Forecast Council.  The council is required to approve all state caseload forecasts four times each year.  Caseload is defined as the number of persons expected to meet eligibility requirements or require services from Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Community Mental Health, the Involuntary Treatment Act, Medicaid, Nursing Homes, state correctional institutions, state mental hospitals, developmental disabled, juvenile offenders, and any other state-funded programs as determined by the council.

The director of the Office of Financial Management employs the caseload forecast supervisor.  Desirable experience and training are described.  Requirements that agencies affected by caseloads provide the council with caseload reports and data are included. Caseload forecasts upon which the Governor's budget document is based may be adjusted by assumptions about policy or program changes.  Such adjustments must be clearly spelled out in the budget document.

Appropriation:    none

Revenue:    none

Fiscal Note:      available

Senate Committee - Testified: Gary Robinson, OFM (against)