The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) consists of the State Treasurer, four legislators representing the two largest political caucuses of the Senate and House of Representatives, and two individuals appointed by the Governor. The Chair of the ERFC is selected from among the four caucus appointees.
The ERFC director prepares, on a quarterly basis, state economic and revenue forecasts for the omnibus operating budget subject to the approval of the ERFC. To facilitate compliance with the four-year balanced budget requirement, the ERFC must approve budget outlooks of the proposed Governor's budget and the enacted budget. A councilmember who does not cast an affirmative vote for approval of the official economic and revenue forecast or state budget outlook may request an alternative forecast or outlook based on assumptions specified by the councilmember.
The ERFC director must share information, data, and files with the Department of Revenue (DOR). The ERFC Workgroup receives revenue collection information the first business day following the conclusion of the collection period. The members of the ERFC Workgroup include one staff member appointed by the executive or chairperson of DOR, the Office of Financial Management (OFM), the Legislative Evaluation and Accountability Program Committee, and the Ways and Means committees of the Senate and House of Representatives (House).
The Transportation Revenue Forecast Council consists of staff who forecast transportation revenues collected by the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), the Department of Licensing (DOL), OFM, DOR, and the Washington State Patrol. The transportation revenue forecast is prepared quarterly on the same schedule as the ERFC forecast and uses the economic forecast approved by the ERFC. The transportation revenue forecast is for a ten-year period. House and Senate Transportation committee staff are included in the process for legislative input and to ensure access to the forecast information.
The legislative appointees on the ERFC for consideration and approval of the economic and revenue forecast for the omnibus operating budget and the Budget Outlooks are increased from four to eight. The number of votes needed to to approve an economic and revenue forecasts, Budget Outlook, and the appointment of the ERFC director is increased from five to seven.
Beginning with the September 2024 forecast, the newly created Transportation Revenue Forecast Council (TRFC) will adopt quarterly transportation revenue forecasts for transportation related funds. Transportation revenue forecasts must include projections for the current fiscal biennium and the next two ensuing fiscal biennia. Membership on the Transportation Revenue Forecast Council consists of the following members:
The chair of the TRFC is selected from among the four legislators. The TRFC must oversee the preparation of and approve, by an affirmative vote of at least five members, the official, optimistic, and pessimistic transportation economic and revenue forecasts. The TRFC must work with the ERFC director to supervise the preparation of all transportation revenue forecasts. If the TRFC is unable to approve a quarterly forecast, the ERFC director must submit the forecast without approval and the forecast shall have the same effect as if approved by the council.
A TRFC councilmember who does not cast an affirmative vote for approval of the official transportation revenue forecast may request an alternative revenue forecast based on assumptions specified by the member. The ERFC director may also prepare unofficial transportation projections as deemed warranted by the supervisor, which may include optimistic and pessimistic assumptions.
Staff of the House and Senate Transportation Committees, WSDOT, and DOL are added to the technical Workgroup for purposes of the transportation revenue forecast.
The committee recommended a different version of the bill than what was heard. PRO: The problem we are trying to solve is WSDOT has had difficulty filling key forecasting positions, including the lead forecaster with no luck. The transfer of the transportation forecasting responsibilities to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) will improve the situation and tap into the expertise of the ERFC in the process. The transfer will also allow for greater coordination and consistency in the forecasts. This will also improve transparency and allow for greater legislative involvement.
The committee recommended a different version of the bill than what was heard. None.