FINAL BILL REPORT

HB 1239

FULL VETO

BYRepresentative Grimm

Expanding duties of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council to include human services caseload forecasting.

AS PASSED LEGISLATURE

BACKGROUND:

To assist with the managing of social programs and for establishing program funding levels, the Department of Social and Health Services (DSHS) produces forecasts of caseloads to be served.  These forecasts generally cover two year periods of time.  Different models and forecasting techniques are used to predict the numbers of people seeking services.  Program administrators, in conjunction with central DSHS budget office staff, work together to determine the assumptions used to generate the anticipated numbers of people to be served in each program.  The Office of Financial Management (OFM), Forecasting Division, then reviews these forecasts prior to their release to the legislature.  The forecasted caseloads are usually available in November just prior to the release of the Governors' Biennial Budget on December 20 of each even numbered year.  The caseload forecasts are generally updated once and sometimes twice before a final legislative budget is adopted.  The timing of the forecast updates do not correspond well with legislative analysis and budget decision making.

Since fiscal year 1980, actual caseloads (primarily Title 19, which is Income Assistance, Medical Assistance and Nursing Homes) have far exceeded forecasted caseloads.  The underestimating of caseloads has resulted in the need for supplemental appropriations and/or the imposition of reduced grant payments and/or services to clients and families to allow the affected programs to continue operating without exceeding available funding.

SUMMARY:

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council is required to approve all state caseload forecasts.  The secretary of the Department of Social and Health Services is to employ a caseload forecast supervisor.  After an initial three-year term, the supervisor's continued employment is approved or disapproved by the Forecast Council.  The caseload forecast supervisor is to prepare on a quarterly basis, subject to the approval of the Economic, Revenue and Caseload Forecast Council:  (1)  An official state caseload forecast, (2)  An unofficial state caseload forecast based on optimistic caseload projections, and (3) An unofficial state caseload forecast based on pessimistic caseload projections.  Caseload is defined as meaning the number of persons expected to meet eligibility requirements or require services from Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Community Mental Health, the Involuntary Treatment Act, Medicaid, Nursing Homes, state correctional institutions, state mental hospitals, developmental disabled, juvenile offenders and any other state-funded programs as determined by the council.

The governor may designate two people to serve in lieu of his two appointees to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council when the council is dealing with issues directly related to caseload forecasts.  The administrator of the Legislative Evaluation and Accountability Program Committee may request from the caseload supervisor any alternative caseload forecasts based on assumptions specified by the administrator.

State agencies affected by caseloads are required to submit caseload reports and data to the council as soon as such information is available.

VOTES ON FINAL PASSAGE:

First Special Session

      House 94   0

      Senate    30    15

FULL VETO:  (See VETO MESSAGE)